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Customer LTV Estimator

Most DTC brands calculate LTV wrong — using gross revenue instead of contribution margin. This tool shows you your real 12-month and 24-month LTV, your honest LTV:CAC ratio, and how long it actually takes to pay back acquisition costs.

Enter your per-order and acquisition numbers

Per-order economics
Purchase frequency
Acquisition

How this works

Why use contribution margin instead of gross revenue for LTV?

Gross revenue LTV ignores the variable costs that scale with every order — shipping, returns, payment processing. A brand calculating LTV on revenue might think their LTV is $180 when the real contribution-margin LTV is $95. That gap leads to overspending on acquisition by 40–80%. See our guide on why most DTC brands calculate LTV wrong.

What counts as "orders in first 12 months"?

Pull your cohort data from Shopify: for customers who made their first purchase in a specific month 12+ months ago, calculate the average number of orders they placed in their first 12 months. Repeat for several cohorts and average. Don't use blended averages from your full customer base — cohort data is more accurate.

What is a good LTV:CAC ratio?

On a 12-month contribution-margin basis, 3:1 or higher is healthy for most DTC brands. Below 2:1 means your paid acquisition is structurally marginal — you're barely recouping acquisition cost within a year. Above 5:1 often signals under-investment in acquisition: you have room to spend more before hitting diminishing returns.

What's the payback period target?

Under 6 months is healthy for most DTC brands and allows aggressive scaling without cash flow strain. 6–12 months is viable but requires careful working capital management. Over 12 months creates a cash flow trap as you scale — revenue grows while the business becomes structurally less solvent.